5房地产 & 2019年建筑预测
5房地产 & 2019年建筑预测以动荡的贸易状况为标志, 不断变化的零售格局, continued fallout over tax reform and the accelerated growth of coworking companies, 2018 was an eventful year for the real estate and construction industries.
现在是2019年的开始，各种力量都在发挥作用. The IRS will continue to release additional guidance on provisions introduced via tax reform, 美国的未来.S. 贸易政策不确定，利率可能再次上升.
我们概述了2019年的五大预测. 继续往下读，了解更多.
预测# 1
Turbulent trade: Trade tensions will accelerate Chinese investors’ retreat from U.S. 商业地产. 甚至在联合国成立之前.S.-China relationship entered rocky waters in 2018, Chinese investment in U.S. 房地产市场已经在下滑.
The heated tariff disputes in 2018 hastened Chinese investors’ divestment from the U.S. 房地产市场. 2018年年中，中国成为美国原油的净卖家.S. 商业地产十年来首次出现下滑. 而关税降级可能会在2019年发生, 中国投资不太可能重返该行业.
尽管来自一个主要外国投资者的投资活动有所减少，但美国经济仍在增长.S. 开发者不必担心. Plenty of investment capital—or “dry powder”—is still available for new projects, 和你.S. real estate remains an attractive investment prospect for foreign investors at large. The pullback of Chinese investors should not hamper new projects from getting off the ground in 2019.
预测# 2
Office and retail tenants are already pushing for shorter lease terms, and a preference for flexible leasing will spread to other property types in 2019. The rapid growth of WeWork and other coworking providers has made short-term and flexible office leases more widespread.
As major corporations follow startups and freelancers and embrace shorter leases, traditional landlords will expand their own flexible offerings to remain competitive.
Retailers are also pursuing shorter leases in response to the high rate of store closures, 破产和清算. Increased flexibility with brick-and-mortar locations affords retailers increased nimbleness and helps minimize the risk of defaulting on a lengthy lease. 面对更高的租户周转率, many retail landlords are in turn offering shorter-term leases to new and experience-based tenants as a strategy to keep properties occupied.
租赁会计准则, 哪一项将于2019年对上市公司生效, 为租客要求更短的租期提供了额外的激励. Companies will be required to record lease obligations in their balance sheets. The uncertainty as to how the large liabilities will be viewed by the investment community and lenders is of concern to both landlords and tenants.
In 2019, more tenants will seek to restructure their leases or sign new leases with shorter terms. While tenants favor flexibility, the shift introduces uncertainty for landlords. Lenders may be less willing to provide long-term financing for shorter leases on commercial properties, which would complicate budgeting and planning for owners of commercial properties.
预测# 3
Demand for new infrastructure projects will increase, but construction labor woes continue. Good news for contractors: Demand for new infrastructure will likely receive bipartisan support in 2019.
If a bill to fund new projects passes, there will be no shortage of new projects breaking ground—U.S. bridges, roads and tunnels across the nation are in dire need of repair.
Additionally, there is high demand for new pipeline infrastructure in the energy sector. 而二叠纪盆地的页岩油产量却在蓬勃发展, a lack of midstream infrastructure has caused bottlenecks and an urgent need for new pipelines.
尽管对新项目的需求很高, we anticipate that the construction sector’s chronic labor problems will continue—more specifically, the gap between demand and the available supply of skilled workers to support those projects. To mitigate these gaps, companies should look to technological solutions to augment their operations.
预测# 4
城市地区的机会区将吸引最多的投资. Opportunity zones will be a major focus area for developers next year, and the majority of investment will likely be within major urban areas, 而不是二三线城市.
Opportunity zones were created as part of the federal tax reform legislation in 2017 to spur economic stimulus in eligible low-income areas by offering tax benefits to investors. 随着更多关于具体税收优惠的指导意见的发布, 开发商和投资者——包括大公司, 房地产投资信托基金, and both retail and high net worth investors—are eager to enter the fray.
并不是所有的机会区都在城市地区, large metropolises are likely to receive the lion’s share of developer interest in 2019. 总的来说, developers are more highly concentrated in urban areas than rural ones and are likely to invest in areas where they have intimate market knowledge or already have an established footprint. 随着投资者在2019年寻找机会区项目, they should assess potential investments with the same level of due diligence they would use in any other deal.
预测# 5
A continued supply glut of Manhattan high-end condominiums will lead to distressed asset sales and foreclosures in 2019. Manhattan’s luxury 房地产市场 is in the midst of a three‑year rough patch.
2018年第三季度, 销量比去年下降了11%以上, Douglas Elliman的报告发现. On average, properties that are sold in this climate go for lower prices.
豪华房地产的前景令人担忧. The inventory of luxury apartments for sale hit its highest level in seven years in mid-2018. In spite of the oversupply, additional new construction is expected to come online. 高端共管公寓市场的买家越来越少, as stricter anti-money laundering regulations discourage foreign buyers, 和你.S. 买家对价格更加敏感.
With no end in sight to the supply glut and few buyers vying for properties, 卖家可能会在2019年达到临界点. In 2019, distressed asset sales of high-end condominiums and foreclosures on the properties will increase.
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